Jim Walsh's Big Hairy Weblog Thingy

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

We're Doomed! DOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

Earlier today I got one of those “predictions for next year” questionnaire things from a broadcast trade publisher. Below you’ll find the list of questions along with my cheery responses:


The Biggest Obstacle Radio Will Face in 2008 is...

...the ongoing "brain drain" as the industry's best and brightest continue to be driven out of the business...


The Surprise Format of 2008 Will Be...

Well, FM Talk should be the surprise format; unfortunately, the industry, focused as it is on the quick fix, will continue to resist this, as well as any other true formatic innovation.


In 2008, Satellite Radio will...

Stay about the same. Yawn...


In 2008, HD Radio will…

...turn out to be a false messiah...


In 2008, Internet Radio will...

Plateau...more of the same ol' same ol'...


Radio Consolidation More? Less? About the same?

Clear Channel will stabilize, Cumulus and others will pick up the pace...


Personality Radio: More? Less? About the Same? Other...

Will decrease in both quantity and quality...


Howard Stern Will Return to Terrestrial Radio in 2008. Yes? No? Other: explain.

No...why would he jump back on a sinking ship...


By this time next year, PPM will…

...be a fiasco; the straw that killed the Arbitron monopoly (but maybe that's too optimistic)...


2008's Hottest Rising Female Personality Will Be...... (include calls or network)

Automation...


2008's Hottest Rising Male Personality Will Be...... (include calls or network)

Automation (deeper voice)...


2008's Hottest Rising Show Will Be...... (include calls or network)

Boring Rush clone...


By This Time Next Year, Don Imus will...

...be the world's highest-paid white elephant...


In 2008, Look for this TV Celebrity to Crossover to Radio...

Paris Hilton (why not, she's done everything else...)


In 2008, Look for this Radio Personality to Make a Crossover to TV...

Telegenic, boring Rush clone


For Radio, 2008 Will Be... A Better Year? Stay About The Same? Other...

Other… as in worse (notice how this puffpiece merchant can't even bring himself to write the "w" word). Music listeners will continue the exodus, turning to I-pods and other media. FM talk will not happen, despite a great potential, hobbled by the lack of imagination and courage on the part of the industry's top-level decision makers.

Radio is on the way out - and has only itself to blame.


Sorry to be so doomy-and-gloomy, guys - but the handwriting's on the wall as far as I'm concerned. Then again, I remember the words of a certain firebrand Political Science professor from my undergrad days: "I base all of my hope for the future on the fact that I've always been lousy at predicting it..."

-JW

2 Comments:

  • HD Radio is nothing but a farce:

    http://hdradiofarce.blogspot.com/

    By Blogger PocketRadio, at 5:43 AM  

  • I was browsing around and caught this post. It will be interesting to go back to this in December of '08 and see how well you did.

    By Blogger Grumpy Tech Guy, at 8:46 PM  

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